The Shifting Geography of U.S. Labor: Statistical Analysis

A March 2026 Center for Economic and Policy Research report and a companion WPR analysis paint a stark picture: between 1985 and 2025, total U.S. union membership fell from 18% to 10% nationally — but the state-level variation is dramatic:

1. Private sector union membership rates declined in every state except Vermont (where it rose 0.3 points to 7.4%) over 40 years.

2. Public-sector unions remained more stable — 20 states saw membership rates rise.

3. In 2025, even the most unionized U.S. state (Hawaii) trailed every Canadian province except Alberta and Ontario.

4. Wisconsin fell from 22.3% overall in 1985 to 6.4% in 2025 — a 15.9-point drop and one of the steepest proportional declines (28.7% of 1985 levels).
The Wisconsin drop is concentrated around 2011, when Act 10 effectively ended collective bargaining for teachers and most government workers. Public-sector union membership in Wisconsin dropped nearly 29 percentage points — by far the largest state decline. Under Act 10, public-sector unions couldn’t bargain over benefits, safety, or working conditions; pay bargaining was capped at the rate of inflation; and unions had to win annual recertification votes. The result: many public-sector unions in Wisconsin simply disappeared.

5. Other steepest decliners: West Virginia (-14.2 points), Michigan (-15.5 points), Indiana (-14.4 points private sector). Proportionally, South Dakota and Arkansas saw their union membership rates contract to about a fifth of their 1985 levels.

For employers and policy watchers, three implications:

1. State-level labor policy matters enormously. The same federal NLRA produces dramatically different on-the-ground union density depending on what states do at the margins (right-to-work, public-sector bargaining rules, recertification requirements).

2. Wisconsin’s experience is the case study for how aggressive state policy can rapidly shift density. Expect it to be cited in every legislative debate about labor law reform in 2026 — by both sides.

3. Public perception of unions is improving even as membership has declined. Polling shows broad majorities saying workers should have the ability to influence their workplace collectively. That gap between sentiment and structure creates political pressure for legal change.

The deeper question: does the U.S. labor model need structural reform (sectoral bargaining, Worker Boards) — or is the current framework, properly enforced, still capable of supporting density growth?